While at home this month I have been pondering the tragic Covid-19 moment we are living in. We are experiencing a physical and emotional disruption unlike any we have ever experienced. As some states and municipalities move toward a period of quasi-normalcy we have yet to understand what this stage will actually be like. We are in an almost surreal state. The 19th-century American novelist, Nathaniel Hawthorne summed it up best,…“Yesterday has already vanished among the shadows of the past; to-morrow has not yet emerged from the future. You have found an intermediate space.”

Click on my video below to get an idea where my post is headed.

I will share some thoughts and ideas which have been bubbling up as well as some forecasts, as we move into the totally unchartered waters of…THE NEW…ABNORMAL. My prognostications may not all come to fruition but hopefully may spur conversation.

In Greek mythology, Atlas was a titan condemned to hold up the celestial heavens for eternity. Today we can almost envision him with the added burden of the Covid-19 virus on his shoulders. Worldwide there are over 3,400,000 cases and 250,000 deaths. The U.S. has over 1 million+ cases and 62,000+ deaths.

Washington has consistently given out mixed Coronavirus messaging. The daily Coronavirus briefings have begun with medical experts then gone off the rails with the President railing against the press or attacking somebody! “Stay home and be safe,” was accompanied by Presidential tweets “LIBERATE MINNESOTA” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA.”

Some states and municipalities are opening up business and recreation as they rush back to some semblance of normalcy. Some of these states took early drastic measures and have a low infection/death rates. They appear to be more organized in their approach, while states like Georgia and Florida seem less so. It is as if we have TWO PARALLEL NARRATIVES…(or universes) with conservative states less concerned about the virus threat (i.e. more Fox News viewers), and more concern by liberal states and big cities watching more CNN, MSNBC, or reading NY Times, Washington Post, Axios, Time Magazine and more fact-based, scientific reporting. A GIANT QUESTION…WHEN WILL SCHOOLS BEGIN TO OPEN & HOW WILL THEY MAKE IT SAFE?

With no vaccine on the immediate horizon, expanding commerce will be immensely challenging! Businesses will have to protect their workers and provide confidence to get wary consumers back in the store or restaurant. We will likely see more testing, temperature-taking, heat mapping, and contact tracing. Expect to see more intrusive security measures and surveillance. Look for infectious disease forecasting and a pandemic early warning system, similar to the National Weather Service. Blue Dot, a Canadian tech company, uses AI for unique forecasting.

Businesses worldwide are in crisis mode! Small businesses are obviously reeling. The government has enacted over 2 trillion is assistance but more help is needed and quickly! No one knows if the difficulty will last a quarter, six months, or more than a year.

Brick and mortar retail were in trouble before the Coronvirus crisis. The list of iconic retailers who are out of business, downsized, or facing bankruptcies is staggering.

What will retail look like after the Coronvirus settles down? It will be a very different scene all together! The Amazons of the world will become larger. Ecommerce will continue upwards! The Home Depots, Target, and Walmarts of the world will grow. The unique and exciting boutique, and “mom & pop” stores will be a sad rarity. Independent retail was always a tough gig,…and now? This is a very interesting article on how the pandemic will change the face of retail in The Atlantic Magazine.

We will see a period of “balkanized-normalcy” with wide differences in daily life depending on the region of the country, one’s age, economic position and type of previous employment (manufacturing, retail, sales, hospitality, service industries, healthcare workers, etc.) Many workers will continue working at home. If schools remain closed this will put tremendous pressure on parents needing to return to work. “Who will take care of the kids?”

People want to be out and about. For Millenials, this is part of their DNA! How can this be done safely? We have entered a twilight zone of curious limbo. “Can I be out?” “Where can I go?” “Will I be safe?” “What mask should I wear?” People will constantly be taking a “risk” assessment!

Our presidential election is 6 months away. Trump will use everything in his power to win reelection, keep his base happy and sway undecideds. It will not be pretty! Brace yourself for an unpredictable phase of hyper-partisanship! His approval numbers are trending down so watch for some craziness! Watch for Trump to create events to distract us from the election such as sinking an Iranian ship, firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and obfuscating like never before! Our democracy will depend on open discourse, factual reporting by the main-stream media, an informed electorate,…and simplified voting processes!

Who will win in November? My money is on Biden in a close battle!

I’m like you,…I want to go back to restaurants again! Take-out and restaurant delivery are fine ( and very happy for it) but a restaurant experience cannot be duplicated in your home! The big question is how can a restaurant make the economics work with social distancing? Will we see the demise of fine dining? I surely hope not! Many restaurant owners in the U.S. have complained about Federal assistance giving furloughed workers more money than they would might make, reducing the incentive to return to work. Possibly we have a bigger issue at play: terribly low wages in the industry.

Will we see gatherings like this in cafes and bars? Probably not in the short term.

I took this photo in September 2015. How will cities organize and enforce social distancing in this new world?

I predict we will see a number of things becoming obsolete, at least in the year ahead: Handshakes, buffets & salad bars, high fives, TP-ing homes, middle seats on airplanes, manned tollbooths, happy hour meals, large public gatherings, mosh-pits at concerts, etc.

WHAT WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE IN THE YEAR AHEAD:

• COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE…DOWN. Shopping centers were terribly overbuilt in the last decade. They are in big trouble now.
• BUSINESS TRAVEL…DOWN. Welcome to the ‘Zoom” world and virtual meetings.
• DRINKING…UP. Happy hour is much earlier in your home and the nibbles are better!
• COOKING…UP. Many people who haven’t cooked in years are discovering…the joy of cooking!”
• ONLINE GROCERY SHOPPING…UP. Many people have tried it and will continue post-COVID.
• LIVE SPORTS…DOWN. This is a tough one. We all love attending sporting events but this will be difficult in the short term!
• CHINA…DOWN. The world’s manufacturer will start to loose business as companies resource in other areas such as Viet Nam. Tariffs started this happening and now the virus! China needs more stringent government controls over food production and handling. Too many viruses have originated here!
• AUTOMATION & ROBOTICS…UP. As more manufacturing returns to the U.S. from places like China we will see more automation in the workplace and fewer jobs. This may accelerate more discussion about government paid basic incomes.
• HOME REMODELING…UP. More remodeling inside and outside the home.
• CLEANLINESS…UP. We are all taking more time to work on personal cleanliness. Businesses large and small are concentrating on it for their employees and future customers. The airlines are focused on it as well.
• VACATIONS…UP. After being cooped up for weeks we all want to go somewhere. We all want enriching experiences and traveling is important for many of us. A big question is,…“how much risk can we tolerate?”

Marla and I have been dreaming of trips we would like to take when it is safe for travel; back to the Cote d’Azur or Guernsey & Sark …a bike trip from Chiang Mai to The Golden triangle.

“It seems that the more places I see and experience, the bigger I realize the world to be. The more I become aware of, the more I realize how relatively little I know of it, how many places I have still to go, how much more there is to learn. Maybe that’s enlightenment enough – to know that there is no final resting place of the mind, no moment of smug clarity. Perhaps wisdom, at least for me, means realizing how small I am, and unwise, and how far I have yet to go.” Anthony Bourdain

Travel TV shows and virtual travel are wonderful but immersion in fascinating actual locales is unbeatable!

We are all in for a rough ride of disruption and upheaval on multiple levels. Through it all I remain optimistic for a healthy and happier day ahead. We will see more rapid testing and safer life procedures making a return to…semi-normalcy possible. And, hopefully we will have an effective vaccine in 2021!

If anything, Covid-19 has shown a bright light on all our heroic medical workers and caregivers who risk their lives on a daily basis. Our heroes include First Responders, transportation workers, grocery workers and everyone who helps to keep our society running. Thank you! I thought of this David Bowie’s song,…”HEROES.” It may be 35 years old but it still strongly resonates.

And I will close with wonderful words from Maria Popova from Brain Pickings:

“…a changed world, blinking with disorientation, disbelief, and no small measure of heartache. All around us, nature stands as a selective laboratory log of only successes in a series of experiments we call evolution—every creature alive today, from the blooming magnolias to the pathogen-carrying bat, is alive because its progenitors have survived myriad cataclysms, adapted to myriad unforseen challenges, learned to live in unimagined worlds.”

I wish you all a happy and healthy present…and an amazing tomorrow. Dick Gentry